Hello Dolly!

Dolly has formed in the Caribbean. Now, everyone from Mexico, Texas, and Louisiana are keeping an eye on the storm. It could form into a hurricane, which could be a problem. One forecast model has it as a major hurricane, a Category 4! Hopefully that will not be the case.

Here is the NHC’s Advisory TS Dolly Number 3.

000
WTNT34 KNHC 210257
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
1100 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008

…DOLLY APPROACHES THE YUCATAN…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM THE BORDER WITH BELIZE TO CAMPECHE MEXICO. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM
BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER WITH MEXICO. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA…IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM EDT…0300Z…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH…LONGITUDE 85.8 WEST OR ABOUT 180
MILES…290 KM…EAST-NORTHEAST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO AND ABOUT 95
MILES…150 KM…SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH…22 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL HEADING WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
TOMORROW. THE CENTER OF DOLLY IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND EMERGE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH…85 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST TONIGHT…BUT
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AFTER DOLLY ENTERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES…280 KM
FROM THE CENTER. DOLLY COULD PRODUCE WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM
FORCE…ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS…OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA TONIGHT.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB…29.74 INCHES.

DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO AND IN WESTERN CUBA…WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION…19.6 N…85.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD…NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1007 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

Tropical Storm DOLLY Public Advisory 3

Most computer models have hitting the Texas/Mexico border.

However, if we use history going back to 1851, storms that have formed within 400 miles of Dolly, three storms ended up on the Upper Texas Coast. Two on West Central Coast of Florida One in Gulf Coast of Mexico, Louisiana, and Mississippi.

All graphics are courtesy of Weather Underground.

From a historical standpoint, looks like Dolly could make landfall on Texas, which could be a problem by midweek. I think Dolly will be a hurricane, most likely a Category 2 at most. However, I would not rule out a major hurricane even. Forecasting is not always accurate and turns out wrong. In fact, when Hurricane Rita formed in 2005, models had it Mexico, South Texas, Houston area, and eventually Texas/Louisiana border.

Hurricane Claudette in 2003 was forecasted to hit as a tropical storm, but it through rapid intensification and became a hurricane. Had Claudette stayed over the water even longer, it could of been a major hurricane. Just last year, we Humberto which formed from a disturbance to a hurricane in 18 hours! Granted it was a small hurricane, like Jerry in 1989. Had Humberto stayed over the water longer, it could also been a major hurricane too.

My advice to everyone is to keep an eye on Dolly and see where it will go. The moment will be late Monday to Tuesday. I will post more updates later this week.

The Smurfs and Hysteria

We all remember The Smurfs as children. Some loved them, some hated them. Well, there was a Houston gang call The Smurfs that got arrested in January of 1983. Forty teenagers and seven adults were arrested. They were mostly involved in petty crimes, mostly theft. It was reported in the local news that time.

However, hysteria broke out, mostly among middle and high school students. Students feared that the Smurfs would come and attack the school. Various rumors emerged that the Smurfs would kill people who were not wearing blue or black. Another was that the Smurfs hid in bathrooms and one supposedly raped a girl with a broomstick. At the peak of the hysteria, many students did not come to school out of fear that the Smurfs would attack their school.

The hysteria had to be combated by using other cartoon characters. One principal used Garfield the cat, to fight off the Smurfs. This Smurf hysteria even got picked up by Newsweek in the April 4, 1983 issue. It was a blurb. This hysteria today is largely forgotten. Also, Hurricane Alicia made landfall that same year, which was a major disaster.

This hysteria reminds me of one back in elementary school, the fear of Neo-Nazis skinheads. I remember students saying they saw skinheads near the school. I personally never saw one, even though I remember one girl claimed to have seen one. All the skinhead sightings were from Jewish kids at the school. There were even a rumor that at least one of the Jewish kid had knife held to his throat by a skinhead and he left the school. The skinhead hysteria died off as quickly as it emerged. Most likely, they were either teenagers or young adults. Also, I have heard they were arrested.

Snopes Message Board-Texan schools attacked by Smurfs?
Google Scanned Copy Of The Rough Guide to Unexplained Phenomenais
Houston Press Hair Balls-The Year the Smurfs Attacked

Father Allegedly Shoots Wife, Kidnaps Son, Then Gets Hit by Bus

Father Allegedly Shoots Wife, Kidnaps Son, Then Gets Hit by Bus
AP via FOX News
Monday, July 07, 2008

SANTA ANA, Calif. — A desperate five-day search for a 9-year-old boy abducted by his father in Southern California ended in Mexico, where the man died after being hit by a bus and the boy was found safe across town, authorities said Monday.

Ryan Ramos was found alone Sunday in a Mormon church building in Ciudad Juarez, Mexico, and arrived in Orange County early Monday, where he was reunited with his family, sheriff’s spokesman Jim Amormino said.

He had been missing since Wednesday, when his father, Lonnie Ramos, 46, allegedly shot his estranged wife during a custody exchange and took off with their child.

Full Article

Lonnie Ramos, come on down! You have won the Darwin Award! Congratulations! This should happen to all criminals.

At least his family are alive and hopefully they will recover. Prayers to them.

Happy Independence Day!

Happy Independence Day from your author. Also, it is Happy 232nd Birthday America! God bless America!

Report: Gloucester Teens Had Pact To Get Pregnant

Report: Gloucester Teens Had Pact To Get Pregnant

GLOUCESTER (WBZ) ― There’s a stunning twist to the sudden rise in teen pregnancies at Gloucester High School. 17 students there are expecting and, according to a published report, most of them became that way on purpose.

Time Magazine is reporting that nearly half of the girls confessed to making a pact to get pregnant and raise their babies together. None of the girls is older than 16.

Principal Joseph Sullivan has not returned calls from WBZ to confirm the report.

Full Article

All I can this is just appalling and disturbing. Having a baby is really life changing. It changes a person and makes them more mature. Sadly, many do it just for attention and want to feel and give love. If they really want to give love they can help disadvantaged and poor people or get a pet and show love to it. Having a child is a lot of responsibility makes you mature.

People want attention, in some cases more attention. They feel like they do not get enough attention from their parents. People will do anything for attention, like in this case, get pregnant. They do not realize that this life changing and not a laughing matter. I have dub this the “Paris Hilton Effect” because she what I call an “attention whore”. She is the ultimate definition of one. She is pure trash and has nothing good. She gives the Hilton family a bad name.

When I was in high school, I can only think of one case of teenage pregnancy and both the mother and father dropped out and got married as a result. Back than, if girls got pregnant, they were shunned, like what the Amish were known for, called Meidung, which is a German word for avoiding. It still happens, but not as often as it did in the past.

Sadly, nowadays, it is not always the case. Some parents are just as immature as children. Good example of that is Wanda Holloway and Lori Drew.

Half-Way Mark

I cannot believe it. We are half way through 2008. July 1st was the half way mark. Time sure flies fast, especially when you get older. Labor Day, Halloween, Thanksgiving, and Christmas are getting closer. They will be here before we realize it. Right now it is summer and time for vacation or relaxing.

Now, July 4th is upon us, which is Independence Day.