One Year Ago Today

ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 AM AST MON SEP 01 2008

…NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS HALF WAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS…COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY…

AT 1100 AM AST…1500Z…THE CENTER OF THE NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH…LONGITUDE
39.5 WEST OR ABOUT 1470 MILES…2365 KM…EAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH…26 KM/HR. A
GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH…55 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB…29.68 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION…17.6 N…39.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD…WEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

NNNN

Tropical Depression 9 would later become Ike. Twelve days later it made landfall on Galveston. It was a disaster.

NOAA: July Temperature Below-Average for the U.S.

NOAA: July Temperature Below-Average for the U.S.
August 10, 2009

The July 2009 temperature for the contiguous United States was below the long-term average, based on records going back to 1895, according to a preliminary analysis by NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C.

The average July temperature of 73.5 degrees F was 0.8 degrees F below the 20th century average. Precipitation across the contiguous United States in July averaged 2.90 inches, which is 0.14 inches above the 1901-2000 average.

NOAA-July Temperature Below-Average for the U.S.

Many areas are experiencing a year without the summer, especially up north. It’s really hot and dry here.

KPRC-TV News Coverage Of Hurricane Jerry of 1989

Here is KPRC-TV coverage of Hurricane Jerry of 1989. I remember this hurricane, no rain, just some clouds. It was a small hurricane like Humberto in 2007. Jerry was unpredictable and made a last minute landfall on Galveston.

KTRK-TV Newsreel Of Hurricane Audrey

It’s at the 2:38 mark. It is short, but what a total mess Audrey left for Louisiana. Since KTRK-TV has many newsreels going back to 1957, it would be interesting to see all of them, especially weather and major events.

The Climate Change Climate Change

The Climate Change Climate Change By Kimberley A. Strassel Wall Street Journal June 26, 2009 Steve Fielding recently asked the Obama administration to reassure him on the science of man-made global warming. When the administration proved unhelpful, Mr. Fielding decided to vote against climate-change legislation. If you haven’t heard of this politician, it’s because he’s a member of the Australian Senate. As the U.S. House of Representatives prepares to pass a climate-change bill, the Australian Parliament is preparing to kill its own country’s carbon-emissions scheme. Why? A growing number of Australian politicians, scientists and citizens once again doubt the science of human-caused global warming. Among the many reasons President Barack Obama and the Democratic majority are so intent on quickly jamming a cap-and-trade system through Congress is because the global warming tide is again shifting. It turns out Al Gore and the United Nations (with an assist from the media), did a little too vociferous a job smearing anyone who disagreed with them as “deniers.” The backlash has brought the scientific debate roaring back to life in Australia, Europe, Japan and even, if less reported, the U.S.

Full Article

Great more junk science in the form of Global Warmng. Earth’s climate is always going to change no matter what. We cannot control it. The Cap and Trade will not pass.

So Much For Global Warming

Frigid temperatures take WNY by surprise
By Gene Warner
News Staff Reporter
Updated: 02/05/09 09:37 AM

Talk about great timing.

Buffalo State College hosts the national teach-in on Global Warming Situations today — a day the local temperature bottomed out at minus 6 degrees.

No evidence of global warming here, at least not this morning, when unofficial reports to the National Weather Service listed temperatures as low as 9 degrees below zero elsewhere in Erie County.

Full Article

So much for Global Warming. Yes, Earth’s climate does change all the time for many reasons ranging from sunspot cycles, change in currents, and continental drifts. Earth was a very different place when there was Pangaea, which we will not see another one in another hundred million years. Earth’s climate constantly changes no matter what. Humans cannot control the climate, save at the local level.

Global Warming is like a religion to those people and is no different from it. People who believe in Global Warming are spiritually void people with empty lives. The carbon offsets are like Indulgences offered by the Vatican. There is a leader of the Global Warming, which many religions have. Also, when something bad happens, they blame it on something evil, like Satan, which is replaced by Global Warming.

Personally, I think Earth is heading towards a cool down, which is fine with me.

Rainy Day

Looks like another rainy night and day. A cold rainy day to be exact. Well, the rain is needed because we have not seen much rain, since we are in a La Nina phase. The rain is coming from a low that formed in the Gulf of Mexico. In fact, it formed further south than expected. This low could become a northeaster, which is something worth watching. I will keep you posted about it. 

Looks like we will not be seeing any winter precipitation this week. Winter weather is hard to predict for sure. We could see an Arctic blast later this month. I have pointed out that some of the biggest Arctic blasts occured in La Nina winters.

2007-2008 Winter Forecast

Since winter has started. People are wondering what this winter will hold, especially in Texas. Since we are in a La Nina phase of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase, it will be more likely to be warmer and drier winter. However, that does not mean we are going to be free of Arctic blasts. Some of the biggest Arctic blasts in Texas occurred in La Nina winters. In fact, the longest Arctic blast for Texas was in a La Nina winter, the winter of 1950-1951. The reason that winter blasts are colder in La Nina winters is because the air is drier, which allows temperatures to cool down even more. Also, the ENSO is not the only factor involved for determining how winter will be like.

I believe that other climate factors are involved, in particular the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Pacific North American (PNA). Here are the indices at the time of the freeze that occurred in La Nina winters.
January 1948
0.6

January-February 1951
1.0 1.4 = 1.2

February 1965
-3.7

January 1971
-1.2

February 1989
3.2

December 1995
-3.8

January 1996
-1.8

February 1996
0.9

December 1998
1.6

January 1999
1.3

December 2000
-2.2

January 2001
-0.1

NAO Indices

It is split down the middle when it comes to NAO influence in La Nina winters.

Now, let’s look at the PDO role in this. This time it is PDO indices.

January 1948
-0.11

January-February 1951
-1.54 -1.06 = -1.3

February 1965
-1.16

January 1971
-1.90

February 1989
-1.02

December 1995
0.16

January 1996
0.59

February 1996
0.75

December 1998
-0.44

January 1999
-0.32

December 2000
0.52

January 2001
0.60

PDO Indices

A more negative PDO is more likely to give Texas cold winters in La Nina years. 7 of the 12 were negative PDOs.

Now, let’s look at the PNA role in this. This time it is PNA indices.

January 1948
N/A

January-February 1951
-0.41 -1.36 = -0.885

February 1965
-0.55

January 1971
-1.39

February 1989
-1.06

December 1995
0.92

January 1996
-0.02

February 1996
-0.30

December 1998
-0.09

January 1999
0.16

December 2000
1.23

January 2001
1.51

PNA Indices

Since January 1948 PNA data is missing, we will have to start with 1951. A more negative PNA is more likely to give Texas cold winters in La Nina years. 7 of the 11 were negative PNAs.

So, what does this mean for this winter? Let’s see, right now, the NAO is in positive territory, while PDO and PNA is trending towards negative. So, we could see a freeze this winter.

CPC-NAO Condition
JISAO-PDO Condition
CPC-PNA Condition