End Of January

I can’t believe it, it is almost the end of the January, the first full month of 2008. February is upon us and comes February 29, Leap Day, which comes every four years. Some people have their birthday on February 29th, in which they celebrate on February 28th or March 1st. I don’t anyone who has a Leap Day birthday.

Looks like we could have a stormy morning complete with thunder and rain. Sounds like spring time in winter. Severe weather does not care what season it is or if it is El Nino or not. Yes, it is more likely to happen in spring and fall, but it can happen anytime. I remember severe thunderstorms in December, flooding in January, and tornados in February.

Mardi Gras is upon us, which is also known as Fat Tuesday, which is celebrated by Catholics and non-Catholics. It is the day before Ash Wednesday and a 40 day period called Lent, which people cannot eat meat on Fridays until Easter. Well, some abstain from smoking and drinking as well, which is a good thing too. It is rather early to celebrate Mardi Gras, which is the earliest since 1913. Easter comes on March 21st, which is early too because spring has barely started.

I am not a football fan myself, but Super Bowl LXII is coming. It is New England Patriots vs. New York Giants. I am rooting for New York of course because it is my favorite city, even though I am a Southerner. I have always liked New York since I was a young child. It will be a game worth watching for me. Super Bowl is one of the days where people consume a lot food besides Thanksgiving. I eat a lot during Super Sunday. Thinking about them nachos and buffalo wings. Mmmmmmmmmmmm. Super Sunday is like a holiday on its own, like Christmas and Labor Day.

2007-2008 Winter Forecast

Since winter has started. People are wondering what this winter will hold, especially in Texas. Since we are in a La Nina phase of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase, it will be more likely to be warmer and drier winter. However, that does not mean we are going to be free of Arctic blasts. Some of the biggest Arctic blasts in Texas occurred in La Nina winters. In fact, the longest Arctic blast for Texas was in a La Nina winter, the winter of 1950-1951. The reason that winter blasts are colder in La Nina winters is because the air is drier, which allows temperatures to cool down even more. Also, the ENSO is not the only factor involved for determining how winter will be like.

I believe that other climate factors are involved, in particular the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Pacific North American (PNA). Here are the indices at the time of the freeze that occurred in La Nina winters.
January 1948
0.6

January-February 1951
1.0 1.4 = 1.2

February 1965
-3.7

January 1971
-1.2

February 1989
3.2

December 1995
-3.8

January 1996
-1.8

February 1996
0.9

December 1998
1.6

January 1999
1.3

December 2000
-2.2

January 2001
-0.1

NAO Indices

It is split down the middle when it comes to NAO influence in La Nina winters.

Now, let’s look at the PDO role in this. This time it is PDO indices.

January 1948
-0.11

January-February 1951
-1.54 -1.06 = -1.3

February 1965
-1.16

January 1971
-1.90

February 1989
-1.02

December 1995
0.16

January 1996
0.59

February 1996
0.75

December 1998
-0.44

January 1999
-0.32

December 2000
0.52

January 2001
0.60

PDO Indices

A more negative PDO is more likely to give Texas cold winters in La Nina years. 7 of the 12 were negative PDOs.

Now, let’s look at the PNA role in this. This time it is PNA indices.

January 1948
N/A

January-February 1951
-0.41 -1.36 = -0.885

February 1965
-0.55

January 1971
-1.39

February 1989
-1.06

December 1995
0.92

January 1996
-0.02

February 1996
-0.30

December 1998
-0.09

January 1999
0.16

December 2000
1.23

January 2001
1.51

PNA Indices

Since January 1948 PNA data is missing, we will have to start with 1951. A more negative PNA is more likely to give Texas cold winters in La Nina years. 7 of the 11 were negative PNAs.

So, what does this mean for this winter? Let’s see, right now, the NAO is in positive territory, while PDO and PNA is trending towards negative. So, we could see a freeze this winter.

CPC-NAO Condition
JISAO-PDO Condition
CPC-PNA Condition