Philippines Declares ‘State of Calamity’ as Typhoon Approaches

Philippines Declares ‘State of Calamity’ as Typhoon Approaches
By Aaron Sheldrick and Francisco Alcuaz Jr.
Bloomberg

Oct. 2 (Bloomberg) — The Philippines declared a national “state of calamity” as Typhoon Parma headed for Luzon, where recovery efforts continue six days after Tropical Storm Ketsana devastated Manila and its surroundings, leaving 293 people dead.

Authorities began moving people from provinces north and southeast of Manila into shelters, Philippine Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro said in an interview on ABS-CBN television. The nationwide state of calamity gives the government the power to peg the price of basic goods.

Parma’s eye was 254 kilometers (158 miles) northeast of the city of Daet on Luzon at 2 p.m. Manila time today, the U.S. Navy Joint Typhoon Warning Center said. The typhoon is forecast to make landfall after 8 a.m. tomorrow.

Full Article

Time for everyone in the Philippines to brace for Typhoon Parma. It will be a huge mess on top of all the heavy rain from Typhoon Ketsana. The Pacific has not been a great place with earthquakes, tsuamis, and typhoons. Keep you posted.

Hurricane Ike: One Year Later

I cannot believe it. It has been one year to the day that Ike ravaged our area. We were all battering down the hatches and preparing for Ike’s onslaught. The rain and wind came crashing in. It would get worse through the night. The wind lashing violently and creating storm surge that would flatten Bolivar Peninsula. The rain and wind continue into the morning. Power was out for many. Many suffered property damage. To make matters worse, some lost loved ones. Ike would be the most costliest hurricane besides Katrina and Andrew.

One Year Ago Today

ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 AM AST MON SEP 01 2008

…NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS HALF WAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS…COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY…

AT 1100 AM AST…1500Z…THE CENTER OF THE NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH…LONGITUDE
39.5 WEST OR ABOUT 1470 MILES…2365 KM…EAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH…26 KM/HR. A
GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH…55 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB…29.68 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION…17.6 N…39.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD…WEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

NNNN

Tropical Depression 9 would later become Ike. Twelve days later it made landfall on Galveston. It was a disaster.

It’s Almost September!

I can’t believe it. It is almost September. It is the start of the fiscal year for the government and many corporations. Two horrid anniversaries lurk in September. The September 11, 2001 Terrorist Attack that occurred 8 years ago and Hurricane Ike ravaging the Texas Coast last year.

Eight years on that fateful Tuesday felt like yesterday when terrorists attacked the World Trade Center, Pentagon, and failed one near Shanksville. 3,000 people are dead and the World Trade Center is no more. Many more will feel the ill effects and possibly die. I cannot imagine being caught by the toxic dust cloud from the collapsing towers. I do not understand how some brave cameramen were filiming it when it was heading towards them as people were fleeing.

I can’t believe that Ike was almost a year ago. I went through it. It was no fun. Heavy rain and strong winds all night into the morning. It was scary. I also had no power for five days. Sucks, doesn’t it? Having no power for an hour is bad enough, but try five days. Some were out for 2 weeks! I hope to never ever to go through that again.

Up to 400 people missing in Taiwan as Typhoon Morakot hits Asia

Up to 400 people missing in Taiwan as Typhoon Morakot hits Asia
From Times Online
August 10, 2009

Typhoons wreaked destruction across Asia with dozens confirmed dead and rescuers hampered by nightfall and bad weather from reaching a mountain village in Taiwan where as many as 600 people may have been buried when a hillside crashed down on their homes.

Television footage shot from helicopters that tried to reach Hsiaolin today showed a few rooftops peeking through rivers of dark grey mud. Almost the entire village had disappeared. Only one or two houses were visible and the main bridge to the village had been swept away by the rains dumped on the island at the weekend by Typhoon Morakot.

About 45 people had been brought out alive and their distress as they spoke hinted at the possible extent of death and destruction they had left behind them. Helicopters trying to reach the area reported seeing some 100 people who had taken shelter on a nearby hillside.

Full Article

Typhoon Morakot has dumped a record 2.5 metres (100in) of rain on the island.

Good Lord! 100 inches of rain on Taiwan. It is due to the mountainous terrain. This could be the worst typhoon for Taiwan. 100 inches is a lot of rain! I remember Allison dumped 40 inches in Houston and I thought that was a lot too. If Hurricane Ike dumped 100 inches on us, the Houston area would be rebuilding still! I remember in 2001, Typhoon Nari dumped up to 52 inches of rain in Taiwan. Not boding too well.

We could use the rain to quell the drought.

UPDATE
115 inches of rain fell from Morakot. That’s really a lot!
Wikipedia-Typhoon Morakot

Hurricane Ike Reflection

Tonight is a much peaceful than last Friday. One week ago at this time, I was hunkering down for Hurricane Ike which made landfall last Saturday at 2:10 AM on Galveston. The monster hurricane I have dreaded for years has come to reality in the form of Ike. We had howling winds and heavy rain all night. It was really scary. Being in a hurricane is something no one should ever go through. I would not wish that on my own worst enemies.

By the time, Ike past us, many areas got 6 to 12 inches of rain over a large area causing widespread flooding, coupled by the high storm surge of up to 25 feet in Bolivar Peninsular that wiped out the towns of Gilchrest and Crystal Beach. Only one house stood in Gilchrest, but it was still badly damaged. Hopefully no one was in Bolivar Peninsula because they could all be washed out to sea and never be found.

The power went out shortly before Ike made landfall. I was out of power and phone for five days. Never been without power for that long. I have seen disasters on TV, but to be in a disaster zone is a nightmare which words cannot describe. It is truly a humbling experience. I was in a disaster zone and Ike is as of right now, the third most costliest hurricane in US history after Katrina and Andrew. Currently, the assessment is still being done and we will get the true damage cost and lives lost from Ike in the coming weeks and months.

Could things have been worse? Absolutely. Ike could of been a Category 4/5 hurricane and made landfall south of Galveston and it would be an absolute nightmare. We could see storm surge as high as 35 feet and many more houses flooded and destroyed. Also, power would not be restored for weeks or even months. Many lives could of been lost because many stayed along the coast. There is a curfew and many people still are without power. I had my power restored last night. Sadly, there are people who lost loved ones and all their properties. My condolences and prayers go to them.

Never forget September 13, 2008, a day that we will all remember as long as we live.

Local Hurricane Ike Advisory

HURRICANE IKE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
132 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

…TIDE LEVELS CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS IKE APPROACHES THE UPPER
TEXAS COAST…

.AT 100 PM CDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 27.4 NORTH…LONGITUDE 93.1 WEST OR ABOUT 165 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY…WITH A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE
CENTER OF IKE WILL BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY LATE
TODAY OR EARLY SATURDAY. HOWEVER…BECAUSE IKE IS A VERY LARGE
TROPICAL CYCLONE…WEATHER WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE ALONG THE
COASTLINE VERY SOON.

DATA FROM BOTH NOAA AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANES INDICATE
THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 105 MPH…WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-
SIMPSON SCALE BUT COULD REACH THE COAST AS A CATEGORY THREE…
MAJOR HURRICANE. STRONGER WINDS…ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS…ARE
LIKELY ON HIGH RISE BUILDINGS.

IKE REMAINS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES FROM THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
IS 957 MB…28.26 INCHES.

TXZ200-213-214-235>238-131845-
/O.CON.KHGX.HU.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
BRAZORIA-CHAMBERS-GALVESTON-HARRIS-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MATAGORDA-
132 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

…HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT…

…NEW INFORMATION…

UPDATED PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS SECTION.
UPDATED STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE SECTION.
UPDATED WINDS SECTION.

…AREAS AFFECTED…

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS:

BRAZORIA…CHAMBERS…GALVESTON…HARRIS…JACKSON…LIBERTY…
MATAGORDA.

…WATCHES/WARNINGS…

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THESE ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.

FLOOD WATCH.

…PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

IT IS IMPERATIVE THAT PERSONS WHO LIVE IN MOBILE HOMES OR POORLY-
BUILT STRUCTURES EVACUATE TO A SAFER LOCATION SUCH AS A WELL BUILT
HOME. PERSONS WHO LIVE IN HIGH RISES SHOULD CONSIDER EVACUATING AS
WINDS CAN BE AS MUCH AS 20 TO 30 MPH STRONGER AT THE TOP OF A HIGH
RISE THAN AT GROUND LEVEL. PERSONS OUTSIDE OF THE MANDATORY EVACUATION
AREAS WHO HAVE NOT EVACUATED SHOULD PLAN TO SHELTER IN PLACE IN A
WELL BUILT STRUCTURE DURING THE PERIOD OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS.

CURRENT EVACUATION INFORMATION:

BRAZORIA COUNTY:

MANDATORY EVACUATIONS HAVE BEEN ORDERED FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CITIES OF PEARLAND…ALVIN…MANVEL…
AND ANGLETON WHICH ARE UNDER A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION.

CHAMBERS COUNTY:

A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY
EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY.

GALVESTON COUNTY:

POWER OUTAGES HAVE BEEN REPORTED ON THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA.

A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED FOR ALL OF GALVESTON
ISLAND.

A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS IN EFFECT FOR BOLIVAR PENINSULA…
OMEGA BAY…SAN LEON…BACLIFF…FREDDIESVILLE…TIKI ISLAND…
KEMAH…AND CLEAR LAKE SHORES.

THE GALVESTON-BOLIVAR FERRY HAS CEASED OPERATIONS.

THE BOLIVAR S.U.D. HAS INDICATED THEY HAVE CEASED WATER SERVICE
TO THE PENINSULA.

HARRIS COUNTY:

A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED FOR THE FOLLOWING ZIP
CODES…77058…77059…77062…77520…77546…77571…77586…
77598 AND 77507.

PERSONS THROUGHOUT HARRIS COUNTY THAT LIVE IN MOBILE HOMES OR
HIGH RISES SHOULD CONSIDER EVACUATING DUE TO THE HIGH THREAT OF
DAMAGING WINDS.

FOR RESIDENTS WITH SPECIAL NEEDS…PLEASE CALL 311.

SOUTHWEST AIRLINES HAS SUSPENDED FLIGHTS INTO AND OUT OF HOBBY
AIRPORT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

JACKSON COUNTY:

A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY.

SCHOOLS WILL BE CLOSED TODAY.

MATAGORDA COUNTY:

A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY.

PALACIOS SCHOOL DISTRICT WILL REMAIN CLOSED ON MONDAY SEPTEMBER
15TH.

…STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE…

TIDE LEVELS REPORTED AT 1230 PM CDT:

HOUSTON SHIP CHANNEL/BATTLESHIP TEXAS – 4.7 FEET
CLEAR LAKE ENTRANCE – 4.6 FEET
ROLLOVER PASS – 5.4 FEET
EAGLE POINT – 5.9 FEET
MORGANS POINT – 5.1 FEET
NORTH JETTY – 7.7 FEET
PIER 21 – 6.8 FEET
PLEASURE PIER – 8.9 FEET
FREEPORT – 7.4 FEET
PORT O`CONNOR – 3.6 FEET

WATER LEVELS WILL BEGIN RISING VERY RAPIDLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WATER LEVELS PEAKING BETWEEN 11 PM AND 3 AM TONIGHT AS THE
STORM SURGE SPREADS ONTO THE COAST AND BAYSHORE AREAS. MAXIMUM
STORM TIDE LEVELS ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE STORM
AND VARIATIONS IN THE TRACK OF ONLY 15 MILES CAN MAKE DIFFERENCES
OF SEVERAL FEET MORE OR LESS FROM SOME OF THESE VALUES.

MAXIMUM WATER LEVELS FORECAST:

SHORELINE OF GALVESTON BAY…15 TO 22 FEET

BOLIVAR PENINSULA…17 TO 20 FEET

GALVESTON ISLAND……14 TO 17 FEET

GULF-FACING COASTLINE FROM SARGENT TO
SAN LUIS PASS…8 TO 14 FEET

GULF-FACING COASTLINE WEST OF SARGENT…4 TO 7 FEET

SHORELINE OF MATAGORDA BAY…3 TO 5 FEET

SEVERE INUNDATION IS LIKELY NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND BAYSHORE
AREAS!

NEIGHBORHOODS THAT ARE AFFECTED BY THE STORM SURGE…AND POSSIBLY
ENTIRE COASTAL COMMUNITIES…WILL BE INUNDATED DURING THE PERIOD
OF PEAK STORM TIDE. MANY RESIDENCES OF AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION
DIRECTLY ON THE COAST WILL BE DESTROYED. WIDESPREAD AND
DEVASTATING PERSONAL PROPERTY DAMAGE IS LIKELY ELSEWHERE. VEHICLES
LEFT BEHIND WILL LIKELY BE SWEPT AWAY. NUMEROUS ROADS WILL BE
SWAMPED…SOME MAY BE WASHED AWAY BY THE WATER. ENTIRE FLOOD PRONE
COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE CUTOFF. WATER LEVELS MAY EXCEED 9 FEET
FOR MORE THAN A MILE INLAND. COASTAL RESIDENTS IN MULTI-STORY
FACILITIES RISK BEING CUTOFF. CONDITIONS WILL BE WORSENED BY
BATTERING WAVES CLOSER TO THE COAST. SUCH WAVES WILL EXACERBATE
PROPERTY DAMAGE…WITH MASSIVE DESTRUCTION OF HOMES…INCLUDING
THOSE OF BLOCK CONSTRUCTION. DAMAGE FROM BEACH EROSION COULD TAKE
YEARS TO REPAIR.

HIGH TIDE TIMES:

MORGANS POINT…
FRI 2:52 PM.
SAT 2:59 PM.
CLEAR LAKE ENTRANCE…
SAT 10:43 AM.
EAGLE POINT…
SAT 8:32 AM.
PORT BOLIVAR…
FRI 1:52 PM.
SAT 4:52 AM.
SAT 3:00 PM.
GALVESTON CHANNEL…
FRI 1:38 PM.
SAT 4:38 AM.
SAT 2:46 PM.
GALVESTON PLEASURE PIER…
SAT 3:32 AM.
SAT 1:40 PM.
JAMAICA BEACH…
FRI 4:16 PM.
SAT 7:16 AM.
SAT 5:24 PM.
SAN LUIS PASS…
FRI 1:29 PM.
SAT 4:29 AM.
SAT 2:37 PM.
FREEPORT…
SAT 3:54 AM.
SAT 2:02 PM.
PORT O CONNOR…
SAT 2:01 PM.

NOTE…TIDE LEVELS ARE REFERENCED FROM THE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER.

…WINDS…

THE WIND FIELD SURROUNDING IKE IS UNUSUALLY LARGE. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
COASTAL COUNTIES IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS…AND SPREAD INLAND TO THE
HOUSTON AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS OF AT LEAST TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WILL LAST UP TO 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 74 MPH WILL REACH THE COASTAL
COUNTIES LATE THIS EVENING. THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD INLAND THROUGH
THE HOUSTON METRO AREA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3 AM CDT. HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS MAY LAST FOR UP TO 12 HOURS.

PEAK WIND GUSTS OF 90 TO 110 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
HARRIS…LIBERTY…BRAZORIA…GALVESTON…AND CHAMBERS COUNTIES.
WIND GUSTS NEAR 115 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR WHERE THE CENTER OF
THE STORM COMES ONSHORE.

VERY DANGEROUS WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD DAMAGE AND
DESTRUCTION OF MOBILE HOMES IS LIKELY.

STRUCTURAL DAMAGE WILL INCLUDE THE MAJORITY OF MOBILE HOMES BEING
SEVERELY DAMAGED. THOSE THAT SURVIVE WILL BE UNINHABITABLE UNTIL
REPAIRED. HOUSES OF POOR TO AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION WILL HAVE MAJOR
DAMAGE…INCLUDING PARTIAL WALL COLLAPSE AND ROOFS BEING LIFTED
OFF. MANY WILL BE UNINHABITABLE. WELL CONSTRUCTED HOUSES WILL
INCUR MINOR DAMAGE TO SHINGLES…SIDING…GUTTERS…AS WELL AS
BLOWN OUT WINDOWS. UP TO ONE QUARTER OF GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL.

PARTIAL ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED AT INDUSTRIAL PARKS…ESPECIALLY
TO THOSE BUILDINGS WITH LIGHT WEIGHT STEEL AND ALUMINUM
COVERINGS. OLDER LOW RISING APARTMENT ROOFS MAY ALSO BE TORN
OFF…AS WELL AS RECEIVING SIDING AND SHINGLE DAMAGE. UP TO ONE
QUARTER OF ALL GLASS IN HIGH RISE OFFICE BUILDINGS WILL BE BLOWN
OUT. AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL CAUSE DAMAGE…INJURY…AND POSSIBLE
FATALITIES.

NATURAL DAMAGE WILL INCLUDE ALL TREES WITH ROTTING BASES BECOMING
UPROOTED OR SNAPPED. NEARLY ALL LARGE BRANCHES WILL SNAP. BETWEEN
ONE QUARTER AND ONE HALF OF HEALTHY SMALL TO MEDIUM SIZED TREES
WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED…MOST COMMON WHERE THE GROUND IS
SATURATED. UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF NEWLY PLANTED GROUND CROPS
WILL BE DAMAGED.

…INLAND FLOODING…

A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE IKE WILL BEGIN SPREADING ONTO
THE UPPER TEXAS COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE HOUSTON METRO
AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING.

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF 5 TO 7 INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 10
TO 12 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE STORM.
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF HEAVIEST
RAINFALL.

…TORNADOES…

THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY BY THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY AS IKE MOVES ONSHORE. YOU SHOULD
PLAN TO SEEK SHELTER IN AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR AWAY
FROM WINDOWS.

…NEXT UPDATE…

THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 530 PM CDT.

$$

Link

Looking more grime for us in the Houston area.

What’s More Dangerous?

Since Hurricane Ike is a large Category 2 hurricane. One has to wonder, how dangerous is it? Since hurricane force winds in Ike extend up to 115 miles and tropical storm force winds extend up to 275 miles, it makes it more dangeours. It is even larger than Hurricane Katrina. Now, the question is, what is more dangerous, a large Category 1/2 hurricane or a small major hurricane. I say a large non-major hurricane.

Here is why I think that. A large hurricane will produce large storm surge. Storm surge is also dependent on the angle of the storm and depth of water. If a hurricane comes a right angle and the water is shallow, you will have higher storm surge than compared to an area that has deeper water. One reason why Hurricane Katrina ravaged Mississippi with 30 foot storm surge. It is why Mississippi and Louisiana got it really bad from Katrina. Katrina was a monsterous hurricane, despite the fact that it weakened from a Category 5 hurricane. Katrina had hurricane force winds extending up to 125 miles.

Hurricane Charley was a strong Category 4 hurricane that made landfall on the Gulf Coast of Florida. It only produced storm surges of p to 6 feet. Charley had hurricane force winds only extending up to 25 miles. Charley was largely destructive because of the strong winds.

The Upper Texas Coast, which includes Houston and Galveston are vulnerable to high storm surge because we have lots of shallow water. If a large Category 5 hurricane was to come here, we could see storm surge as high as 35 feet! Well, with Ike, the highest forecasted is 17 feet, which is still high.

Hurricane Ike Public Advisory 36

000
WTNT34 KNHC 100236
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 09 2008

…IKE BEGINNING TO STRENGTHEN…

AT 11 PM EDT…0300 UTC…THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS CHANGED THE
HURRICANE WARNING TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CUBAN
PROVINCES OF MATANZAS…LA HABANA…CIUDAD DE HABANA…PINAR DEL
RIO…AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

AT 11 PM EDT…0300 UTC…THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR FLORIDA BAY
AND FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE WEST END OF THE
SEVEN MILE BRIDGE IS DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO
THE DRY TORTUGAS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM EDT…0300Z…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH…LONGITUDE 84.3 WEST OR ABOUT 120 MILES…
195 KM…WEST OF HAVANA CUBA.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH…15 KM/HR…AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

DATA FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH…130 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED…AND IKE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE
IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES…55 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES…280 KM. KEY WEST RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45
MPH…72 KM/HR…WITH A GUST TO 60 MPH…96 KM/HR.

THE NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 967 MB…28.56 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING AND WAVES ALONG THE COASTS OF CUBA
SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3
FEET…ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES…ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
LOWER FLORIDA KEYS.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST
OF FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS COULD GENERATE
DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
OVER WESTERN CUBA…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA OVERNIGHT.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION…23.2 N…84.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD…WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…80
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…967 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BERG

Hurricane Ike Public Advisory 36

Looks like Hurricane Ike is heading for Texas. It could hit as a major hurricane, likely a Category 3 to even 5. I expect calls for evacuations by Wednesday. It is likely Ike will be a large hurricane and can make landfall from Mexico to Louisiana. Most likely it will be Texas. It has me concerned. I will post you updates on Ike.

Computer Models for Ike. Subjected To Change.

Three Day Cone for Ike. Do NOT focus on the center.

Hurricane Gustav

000
WTNT32 KNHC 292051
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE GUSTAV ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
500 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2008

…GUSTAV BECOMES A HURRICANE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN…

AT 500 PM EDT…2100 UTC…A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE
LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO
DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS…AND
FOR THE WESTERN CUBAN PROVINCES OF ISLA DE JUVENTUD…PINAR DEL
RIO…LA HABANA…AND CIUDAD DE LA HABANA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA…AND FOR THE
CENTRAL CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS…CIENFUEGOS…VILLA
CLARA…SANCTI SPIRITUS…CIEGO DE AVILA…CAMAGUEY…AND GRANMA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM EDT…2100Z…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH…LONGITUDE 79.7 WEST OR ABOUT 100 MILES…
160 KM…EAST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 380 MILES…610 KM…
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH…19 KM/HR…AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK…THE CENTER OF GUSTAV WILL PASS NEAR OR
OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TONIGHT…OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF CUBA
ON SATURDAY…AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON SATURDAY
NIGHT OR SUNDAY.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH…120 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS…AND
GUSTAV COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE NEAR THE TIME IT CROSSES
WESTERN CUBA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES…45 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160
MILES…260 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 980 MB…28.94 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
IS POSSIBLE IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS…WITH 8 TO 13 FEET POSSIBLE NEAR
WHERE THE CENTER OF GUSTAV CROSSES WESTERN CUBA…INCLUDING ISLA DE
JUVENTUD.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES ACROSS JAMAICA…THE CAYMAN ISLANDS…AND WESTERN
CUBA…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 25 INCHES POSSIBLE.
THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER SOUTHERN CUBA.

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION…19.2 N…79.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD…NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…980 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

NHC-Hurricane Gustav Advisory Number 20

Looks like Gustav is not a hurricane and is getting larger and strengthening. The question is where it is going. Some models have it hitting Lousisiana including New Orleans, which was struck by Hurricane Katrina three years ago to this day. However, models are trending towards the west towards Texas. Not a good situation. The critical moment is Saturday when it is in the Gulf of Mexico. I would not be surprised if it becomes a major hurricane by Saturday morning. I will keep you posted.

Computer Model

5 Day Cone

Historical Track

From all those, it does not look too good for Texas. If Gustav makes landfall on Texas, it would be the third tropical system and second hurricane to make landfall on the state.