So Much For Global Warming

Frigid temperatures take WNY by surprise
By Gene Warner
News Staff Reporter
Updated: 02/05/09 09:37 AM

Talk about great timing.

Buffalo State College hosts the national teach-in on Global Warming Situations today — a day the local temperature bottomed out at minus 6 degrees.

No evidence of global warming here, at least not this morning, when unofficial reports to the National Weather Service listed temperatures as low as 9 degrees below zero elsewhere in Erie County.

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So much for Global Warming. Yes, Earth’s climate does change all the time for many reasons ranging from sunspot cycles, change in currents, and continental drifts. Earth was a very different place when there was Pangaea, which we will not see another one in another hundred million years. Earth’s climate constantly changes no matter what. Humans cannot control the climate, save at the local level.

Global Warming is like a religion to those people and is no different from it. People who believe in Global Warming are spiritually void people with empty lives. The carbon offsets are like Indulgences offered by the Vatican. There is a leader of the Global Warming, which many religions have. Also, when something bad happens, they blame it on something evil, like Satan, which is replaced by Global Warming.

Personally, I think Earth is heading towards a cool down, which is fine with me.

A Night Of Starwatching In March

I came from a night of starwatching with my telescope. It was cold and it was like being in a gondola of a World War I zeppelin. Here are the objects I saw. The seeing was good and the magnitude limit was 3 to 3.5. I used a 8 inch Newtonian.

Mars-The Red Planet. Reddish-orange in color.
Saturn-The Ringed Planet. Spectacular as usual. Never fails to amaze me. I saw Titan, which has an atmosphere, likely what early Earth had.’
M35-Spectacular and bright.
NGC 2158-Fainter and more stars. Right next to M35.
M44-Who left the bees out out of their hives? A sight to behold.
M45-The Seven Sisters.
M67-Faint and reminds me of someone putting a pinch of flour on black paper.
Eskimo Nebula-The cold weather inspired me to see this object. Looks like a small out of focus star.

Objects I try to see.
M65 and M66-Galaxies in Leo. Could not see them due to light pollution. I have seen them in a dark sky location.

M=Messier
NGC=New General Catalog

All in all, a great night of starwatching before to set the clocks forward.

End Of January

I can’t believe it, it is almost the end of the January, the first full month of 2008. February is upon us and comes February 29, Leap Day, which comes every four years. Some people have their birthday on February 29th, in which they celebrate on February 28th or March 1st. I don’t anyone who has a Leap Day birthday.

Looks like we could have a stormy morning complete with thunder and rain. Sounds like spring time in winter. Severe weather does not care what season it is or if it is El Nino or not. Yes, it is more likely to happen in spring and fall, but it can happen anytime. I remember severe thunderstorms in December, flooding in January, and tornados in February.

Mardi Gras is upon us, which is also known as Fat Tuesday, which is celebrated by Catholics and non-Catholics. It is the day before Ash Wednesday and a 40 day period called Lent, which people cannot eat meat on Fridays until Easter. Well, some abstain from smoking and drinking as well, which is a good thing too. It is rather early to celebrate Mardi Gras, which is the earliest since 1913. Easter comes on March 21st, which is early too because spring has barely started.

I am not a football fan myself, but Super Bowl LXII is coming. It is New England Patriots vs. New York Giants. I am rooting for New York of course because it is my favorite city, even though I am a Southerner. I have always liked New York since I was a young child. It will be a game worth watching for me. Super Bowl is one of the days where people consume a lot food besides Thanksgiving. I eat a lot during Super Sunday. Thinking about them nachos and buffalo wings. Mmmmmmmmmmmm. Super Sunday is like a holiday on its own, like Christmas and Labor Day.

Rainy Day

Looks like another rainy night and day. A cold rainy day to be exact. Well, the rain is needed because we have not seen much rain, since we are in a La Nina phase. The rain is coming from a low that formed in the Gulf of Mexico. In fact, it formed further south than expected. This low could become a northeaster, which is something worth watching. I will keep you posted about it. 

Looks like we will not be seeing any winter precipitation this week. Winter weather is hard to predict for sure. We could see an Arctic blast later this month. I have pointed out that some of the biggest Arctic blasts occured in La Nina winters.

2007-2008 Winter Forecast

Since winter has started. People are wondering what this winter will hold, especially in Texas. Since we are in a La Nina phase of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase, it will be more likely to be warmer and drier winter. However, that does not mean we are going to be free of Arctic blasts. Some of the biggest Arctic blasts in Texas occurred in La Nina winters. In fact, the longest Arctic blast for Texas was in a La Nina winter, the winter of 1950-1951. The reason that winter blasts are colder in La Nina winters is because the air is drier, which allows temperatures to cool down even more. Also, the ENSO is not the only factor involved for determining how winter will be like.

I believe that other climate factors are involved, in particular the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Pacific North American (PNA). Here are the indices at the time of the freeze that occurred in La Nina winters.
January 1948
0.6

January-February 1951
1.0 1.4 = 1.2

February 1965
-3.7

January 1971
-1.2

February 1989
3.2

December 1995
-3.8

January 1996
-1.8

February 1996
0.9

December 1998
1.6

January 1999
1.3

December 2000
-2.2

January 2001
-0.1

NAO Indices

It is split down the middle when it comes to NAO influence in La Nina winters.

Now, let’s look at the PDO role in this. This time it is PDO indices.

January 1948
-0.11

January-February 1951
-1.54 -1.06 = -1.3

February 1965
-1.16

January 1971
-1.90

February 1989
-1.02

December 1995
0.16

January 1996
0.59

February 1996
0.75

December 1998
-0.44

January 1999
-0.32

December 2000
0.52

January 2001
0.60

PDO Indices

A more negative PDO is more likely to give Texas cold winters in La Nina years. 7 of the 12 were negative PDOs.

Now, let’s look at the PNA role in this. This time it is PNA indices.

January 1948
N/A

January-February 1951
-0.41 -1.36 = -0.885

February 1965
-0.55

January 1971
-1.39

February 1989
-1.06

December 1995
0.92

January 1996
-0.02

February 1996
-0.30

December 1998
-0.09

January 1999
0.16

December 2000
1.23

January 2001
1.51

PNA Indices

Since January 1948 PNA data is missing, we will have to start with 1951. A more negative PNA is more likely to give Texas cold winters in La Nina years. 7 of the 11 were negative PNAs.

So, what does this mean for this winter? Let’s see, right now, the NAO is in positive territory, while PDO and PNA is trending towards negative. So, we could see a freeze this winter.

CPC-NAO Condition
JISAO-PDO Condition
CPC-PNA Condition